نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی
نویسندگان
1 عضو هیئتعلمی دانشگاه علوم و فنون هوایی شهید ستاری، تهران، ایران
2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد دانشگاه علوم و فنون فارابی، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژهها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Relations between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have remained among the most complex and challenging axes of international politics over past decades, particularly after the 12-Day War for Iran. Therefore, it is essential for Iranian strategists to be aware of potential scenarios. This research is applied in purpose, exploratory-descriptive in nature, and conducted using scenario-writing methodology with a quantitative approach. The expert population included 10 individuals—university professors from the Armed Forces, commanders, and managers in strategic positions—organized into two teams: scenario-writing and strategic guidance. Data collection and analysis were conducted through reviewing specialized scientific literature and interviews with experts.
The probable scenarios were developed and categorized as follows:
Return to the Pre-12-Day War Status with Limited Changes (Optimistic)
Intensification of Tensions and Increased Pressures (Pessimistic)
Renewed Attack on Critical National Infrastructure and War (Catastrophic)
Return to Negotiations and Improvement of Relations (Miraculous)
The results indicate that the “Return to Negotiations and Improvement of Relations” scenario ranks first in priority, followed by “Return to the Pre-12-Day War Status with Limited Changes” as second, “Intensification of Tensions and Increased Pressures” as third, and “Renewed Attack on Critical National Infrastructure and War” as fourth, reflecting the influence, effectiveness, and intervention of Iranian strategists.
کلیدواژهها [English]
منابع برخط:
https://farsi.khamenei.ir/message-content?id=40401
https://farsi.khamenei.ir/newspart-index?id=34912&nt=2&year=1395&tid=14200
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